Two Years

Frightened enough yet ?

So, we're just one week into the Trump presidency, and any remaining doubt is gone (Forget punching Nazis, next arsehole to suggest we should give him a chance, gets it): America has elected an utterly insane, emotionally unstable narcissistic child & Fascist as President.  USA! USA! USA!

I tweeted out recently a prediction that the Congressional GOP would never impeach Trump, which might seem a tad premature for just days into his presidency, what with all the rumours swirling about GOP concerns for his mental health, and others predicting impeachment, whether within a six-month timeframe, immediately after the midterms, or whenever.

I can't predict the future, obviously.  No-one can.  But nonetheless, I feel compelled to give my best guess as to how things play out from here, based upon my read of Trump, Dem. & GOP politicians, and the American public.  And while I hope I'm wrong, I very much believe that we are drifting into a Turkish or Russian style pseudo-democratic Authoritarian state, a 'strong man'-led defacto dictatorship.

Right now, we still have a nominal semi-democratic republic in the United States.  We still have, in theory, rule of law, and a written constitution with guaranteed rights & protections for ordinary citizens & residents. In theory, even as Trump and some around him (Can you say 'emoluments' ?) may be in violation of certain provisions thereof already.

But I don't think this transitional period will last long, and given Trump's rhetoric & executive actions, given that dressing-down of the media by Spicer and thinly veiled threats by Bannon, I don't think it's long before the crackdown on the media & on dissent generally kicks into high gear.  It's going to be an aggressive push to dismantle the norms. and the protections of American democracy, and I don't think either the media or general public are remotely ready for what is coming.

Personally, I think it all plays out over the next two years...before the midterms.  If change is to come, in whatever form, be that impeachment by the Republicans, a mass popular uprising, military coup, some sort or foreign intervention, or hell, while we're clutching at straws, act of G-d, I feel it comes in the next two years or not at all.  My prediction (and by all means call me out if I'm wrong), is that, if Trump survives to the midterms, the only way he leaves the White House, is in a wooden box.

And no, I still don't think the Republicans will impeach him.  My read of the greedy cowards & bullies in Congress is that a) they are almost to a man, in awe of the greater bully in Trump, and constitutionally disinclined to take him on, and b) that they see allowing a crazy person to sit in the White House as the price they have to pay for maintaining power, and a price they are more than willing to pay.

The GOP stood on the precipice of being wiped out prior to the last election.  Ideologically, politically the country is becoming more & more progressive over time, as also demographically the population becomes less & less white, and their most loyal voters (the Fox News demographic of largely older white males) die off.  This election was characterised by many, and I'd say accurately, as the last stand of the conservative white male, and having not only held on to power, but expanded it, with control of all three branches of the federal government, and a majority of governorships & statehouses, why the hell would the GOP ever risk giving it up again...possibly forever ?

In two years time, perhaps the Democrats run on opposition to Trump, on impeachment even. Perhaps there is a groundswell of popular support for this.  Meanwhile, where will the tattered remnants of the Voting Rights Act be, under Attorney General Jefferson Beauregard Sessions & a hard-right dominated Supreme Court ?  What will have happened to (the, if any) investigation into Crosscheck, and the irregularities of the last election, into the widespread attempts at voter-suppression ?  What will have happened to the already heavily gerrymandered districts, to the easily manipulable electronic voting-machines dotting the country ?  Don't be surprised if that groundswell of public support for the Democrats somehow translates into the Republicans massively outperforming expectations.  And don't expect any other elections, or other than sham affairs after that.

I say you have two years, America/Americans.  Two years in which anything could happen.  What you do, what you could do in that time, I don't know.  Maybe you find a way to fight back against creeping fascism, maybe you just learn to adapt...maybe you leave.  But I think your window to avoid an Erdoğan- or Putin-style autocracy is much smaller than you think.  I give it two years.

Last Week Tonight Takes on America's War on Voting

To celebrate the return of Last Week Tonight, and primary season in America, here's John doing what he does best.  Especially like that trick Oliver has of pulling it all back together at the end, then bam !

Real Commies Embrace Crony Capitalism Silly

The main stated reason for the students’ opposition was their conviction that it would have given the mainland too much economic power within Taiwan, which it could then use to wrest political concessions. But Lin’s participation was motivated more ideologically. She and like-minded “leftists” — her word — were convinced that cross-strait relations in general have benefited the rich on both sides to the detriment of exploited workers on both sides. The irony is that Lin came from a place where the study of Marxism is mandatory, only to find in the deeply anti-communist society of Taiwan what she called “true Marxism.”

“In China,” she said, “we learn about Marxism but nobody believes in it, but on Taiwan they really believe in it.” And, unlike on the mainland, where the last student demonstrations in 1989 took place before most current students were born, the students on Taiwan were able to organize themselves, to publicize their views, and to demonstrate.

From an article in Foreign Policy: Does Time in Taiwan Change Young Mainland Minds?  The article doesn't provide a clear answer to the question, but...here's how it ends:

“We are forced to go back. We need to work. We need to live,” Ting said. “The democratic ideology makes no sense for your daily life.”

Back, back, back we go then...

You Don't Say

John Kerry softened America’s demand yesterday that Syria’s dictator must step down, declaring that the timing of Bashar al-Assad’s departure was open to negotiation.

The US secretary of state retreated from the earlier US position that Assad’s removal must be the first step towards resolving Syria’s civil war.

He spoke as the regime carried out a series of air strikes near the ancient city of Palmyra, which has fallen into the hands of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil). The Syrian air force flew as many as 25 sorties, killing perhaps 26 people on the ground, including Isil fighters.

Assad has been emboldened by Russia’s decision to provide direct military support. In recent weeks, Russian tanks and troops have been deployed in Syria, along with a small number of advanced jet fighters.

Russia’s goal appears to be to prevent Assad from suffering more battlefield defeats while also complicating any escalation of America’s air campaign against Isil targets in Syria....

Just admit you fucked up already.  Overplayed your hand.  Turning against Assad so soon was a mistake.  And the notion of democracy easily sweeping the Middle East folly.  It's not too late.


And, while we're on the subject of your ineptitude, about Ukraine...

Corbyn

He may never be prime minister...and nor would I particularly want him to be.  But if Corbyn's victory helps reorient the overall spectrum of British politics (back) leftwards, that's something I celebrate unequivocally.  Labour has a leader again.

9/12

So, another '9/11' has passed us by with no major drama, that I noticed anyway, and no major terrorist-attacks, bar of course those that are now routine across parts of the Islamic world thanks in large part to the destabilising efforts and warmongering of lunatic politicians in the West.  Whatever.

I've always held that the twelfth of September, not the eleventh, should be a national day of mourning and remembrance for the United States.  Not so much for the day itself, or any specific events thereof, but as a general symbolic signifier of all the insanity that proceeded from America's reaction to the traumatic events of the day before.  The Patriot Act.  The War in Iraq.  Extraordinary Rendition.  Illegal (for some of which retroactive amnesty was had to be later granted) spying on Americans.  Secret intelligence-deals with European countries.  The constant fearmongering.  The indefinite detainment in Guantanamo Bay of civilians without trial, often on the basis of mere hearsay; of individuals, many of whom were later found to be completely innocent.  The torture of inmates in prisons in Iraq.  The extrajudicial executions by drone.  The 'Axis of Evil' rhetoric and subsequent toxification of what had been thawing relations with Iran.  'Homeland Security.'  'Enemy Combatants.'  'With us or against us.'  'Old Europe.'  'Freedom Fries.'  The trillions of dollars wasted.  The Dead.  The Displaced.  The countries utterly demolished.  The encouragement and inspiration given to a whole new generation of would-be jihadis and extremists.  The rise of ISIS.

I was as horrified as anyone to see those towers fall.  To see the smoke rising from the Pentagon.  To think of the last moments of Flight 93.  To imagine what it would be like to be driven to jump from the windows of a fucking skyscraper, out of desperation to avoid the smoke and the flames.  Bodies falling from the sky on live television.

Today, I feel almost nothing when I think of '9/11.'  A numbness perhaps.  A cold emptiness ?  But mostly, nothing.  It happened.  It was horrible.  What came after, what was done in the name of that tragedy, that outrage, was infinitely worse.  And is with us still.  And in the name of the so-called 'War on Terror' that by definition can never end, perhaps with us always.

We need a name for the day perhaps.  Something to match the Orwellian monstrosity of naming the 11th 'Patriot Day.'  Something to memorialise the moment that the United States collectively lost its shit.  Abandoned perhaps forever the values that had made it the greatest beacon of liberal values in the world for over two-hundred years.  Shit, something, if nothing else, to remind us that there was a time when we weren't always at war.  When we didn't routinely give away our liberties without question and without protest in the name of 'security.'

We have a whole generation coming into voting-age who have never known anything else.  For whom the police-state and the endless war of the post-9/11 era is 'normal.'  Well, for my own part, fuck that.  No, it will never be normal.  It will never be right.

Speaking of Which...

As All of America/The Entire Republican Party/Fox News Viewers/A Handful of Political Junkies eagerly await the pretend Republican debate(s) on Fox News next week, meanwhile, the actual debate of Republican candidates not named Trump, with an actual chance at the nomination, will take place in southern California this weekend as charisma-less son and brother of former presidents, JEB!, personal puppet-doll of the Kochs, Scott Walker, lunatic clown, Ted Cruz, pretty boy, Marco Rubio, and for some altogether inexplicable reason, failed businesswoman Carly Fiorina compete for the chance at being the billionaire Koch Brothers' chosen bitch in the coming Republican primaries.

Although the remaining eleven 'serious' candidates & Carly, may have a chance of being chosen for the historically most-often powerless VP spot (Darth Cheney, and to a lesser degree, Uncle Joe aside), really, most of the others have no chance of winning, and know that full well, but are running anyway, because...they have nothing the fuck to lose in so doing, and can hoover up oodles of cash in the name of an utterly futile campaign.  They could also have counted on oodles of attention from the media, were it not for one attention-crazed multiple-bankrupt property-developer entering the race...

Fiorina's presence puzzles me a little.  I can only assume, that either, a) the Kochs have her in mind for the VP slot, thinking that her possession of lady-parts somehow lessens Hillary's chances in the General Election, or that b) they think it's needful to string her utterly hopeless campaign along a little longer at least to counter the idea that the GOP is solely a party of rich white men.  Which to be true, it isn't.  It also includes a lot of people, who desperately would rather they were rich white men, and are more than happy to paper over any differences in order to gain even a junior seat at the big boy's table.

Regardless, keeping the Donald's joker-card in mind, almost certainly the nominee will be one of these four assholes: JEB!, fascist fuck Scott Walker, the always entertaining idiot Ted Cruz, or, less likely by the day, 'I'm so Young and Pretty; Isn't Hillary an old Hag' Marco Rubio.  The rest of the crowd is just so much entertainment-value, funded not just by the Brothers Koch, but by the rest of the billionaire-establishment that made Citizens United possible (H/T Chief Justice John Roberts, H/T as always Harriet Miers).

Of course, the Koch-sucking show will all take place behind closed doors (please let someone have sneaked in a camera, please !) as the top candidates get down on their knees and promise various ways in which they, if president, will personally advance the Kochs' agenda of maximally increasing their own personal wealth and power, at the expense of any other single consideration of humanity.

But don't worry, proles, though you are, and long have been, completely shut out of decision-making in your own so-called democracy, at least you'll get to laugh at the pretend candidates in the 'debates' on Fox.

What you won't get, which our more wise historical overlords knew the value of of, was the chance at public dunkings, and throwing rotten fruit.

Jimmy Carter Acknowledges the Obvious

Our Friends in the Near East

In fight against Islamic State, Turkey's Erdogan sees chance to battle Kurds

ISTANBUL, July 27 (Reuters) - Forced into battle against Islamic State as it presses on Turkey's borders, President Tayyip Erdogan is seizing the chance to keep another foe in check, bombing Kurdish militants he sees as a threat to the integrity of the Turkish state.

Casting the operations as a war on terrorist groups "without distinction", Turkey launched air strikes against Islamic State in Syria for the first time last week and granted the U.S.-led coalition access to its air bases after years of reluctance.

It also bombed camps in northern Iraq belonging to the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) for the first time in at least three years. Hundreds of suspected Islamic State and PKK members have been rounded up in raids across Turkey.

Launching wars on two fronts is a high-risk strategy for the NATO member, leaving it dangerously exposed to the threat of reprisals by jihadists and at risk of reigniting a Kurdish insurgency that has cost 40,000 lives over three decades.

Turkey has been a conduit for foreign jihadists, with thousands thought to have crossed its borders to join Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, many concealed among the millions of tourists who flock to Turkey's shores each year.

They have often been aided by Turkish smugglers linked to the Islamist insurgents; a network Turkey has been trying to dismantle but which could retain capacity to launch attacks on Turkish soil after the fashion of last week's suicide bombing, blamed by Ankara on the militants, that killed 32 people.

Western diplomats have long feared that Istanbul, one of the world's most visited cities, or Turkey's Aegean or Mediterranean coastal resorts could be soft targets. Attacks that killed dozens of foreign tourists in Tunisia earlier this year served only as a reminder of the risks.

"Ankara's recent adoption of aggressive policies towards both the PKK and the Islamic State has considerably raised the risk of terrorist attacks and sustained civil unrest inside the country," Wolfango Piccoli of risk research firm Teneo Intelligence said in a note.

Yet on both fronts, Erdogan looks to be hoping to seize opportunity out of crisis. He is reviving Turkey's international standing with the more robust stance on Islamic State, but also undermining the pro-Kurdish opposition and bolstering nationalist support at home with the attacks on the PKK.

I'm so glad Turkey is finally joining the fight against ISIS (ISIL, IS, Daesh, whatever).  The last year or so, others in the West (I suppose we sorta consider Turkey the West these days, rather than the Near East as was) have been fighting a potential existential threat to Turkey and the entire region south of Turkey's border, whilst Turkey let fighters, weapons, and money cross the border, seemingly with impunity.

And now, Turkey generously agrees to join in the fight, so long as they get to also bomb the Kurds, the only remotely stable or militarily proven ally we have on the ground, because they're so terrified of the possibility that 'their own' Kurds might not continue to be denied the statehood that the Turks have bloodily denied them for generations.

Our great ally in NATO, Turkey.  Our would-be future member of the EU.  The same Turkey that has been exploiting the economic frailty of neighbour and member of both the EU & NATO, Greece, by testing their sovereign airspace, to the point of inviting dogfights between the two countries' airforces.

The country that used to be the very model of secular western Islam, but is currently run by Islamist strongman Tayyip Erdoğan, he of Ak Saray-fame, who felt it necessary to squander vast quantities of the people's money on a massive new palatial complex for himself, one of the very largest in the world, on what was previously protected forest-land, so large in order presumably to be able to hold his incredible ego.

The West, in particular the Europeans, seem to have assumed that Turkey made the choice between the values of the liberal west, and the values of mediaeval Arabia long ago*.  But clearly, that choice is still very much up in the air.

The UK, which, still within my lifetime, was facing the bloody aftermath of the Irish partition, just last year, allowed the people of Scotland, home of the UK's sole nuclear deterrent (and now sole shipbuilder -- Thanks DC !) and North Sea oil-fields, a peaceful democratic vote on independence.  It's not surprising that such a similar opportunity would be inconceivable for the Kurds in Iran, in Iraq, in Syria.  But then there's also western-allied NATO-member and future EU-candidate Turkey, which had seemingly made a sort of peace with the PKK, but can't wait to start bombing the Kurds again, the moment it gets the chance, even when they're key allies in a fight that threatens Turkey itself.

Here's Turkey's chance and Tayyip Erdoğan's to define themselves, and what they truly stand for.  Hopefully they're aware of the significance of the moment, and, hopefully those fools in the EU are paying attention, either way.


* We made a similar assumption, multiple times as it happens, about Russia.

Undemocratic Body Undemocratically Appointed Horror

Last week it was revealed that despite a pre-election promise to base the number of appointed peers on party vote share, Mr Cameron is now prevaricating. He said: “I have committed previously to keeping the party peers under review and will, of course, give further consideration to the points you raise when we come to consider recommendations over the course of this parliament.”

But the fact is the Liberal Democrats – who got just 2.4 million votes on May 7th, compared to UKIP’s 3.8 million – are expected to be awarded more peers once again, while UKIP and the Green Party get no further representation in Britain’s upper parliamentary chamber.

Mr Hannan, who is known to be overtly hostile to UKIP, despite long-standing rumours of his defection from the Conservative Party, took to Twitter today to blast the Prime Minister:

Wait, wha...Are you sure about that ?  I haven't paid attention to Hannan for a while, but I'd almost have assumed he was a member of UKIP by now, given the ferocity of his Euroscepticism and his almost career-long stint as an MEP.

The LibDems shouldn't get a single peer until @ukip, @TheGreenParty and others have reached the proportionality demanded by... the LibDems.

— Daniel Hannan (@DanHannanMEP) July 16, 2015

Anyways, I just don't understand all this moaning about the composition of the House of Lords. It's as if the critics don't get, or are pretending not to get, the fact that the institution is fundamentally undemocratic...by design. That an institution that stood as a sort of brake on democratic excesses in its more traditional form had been turned into an exercise in pure cronyism by Tony Blair.

It's a bit like the Democrats in the US still whining about Al Gore having won the popular vote in 2000, when they haven't made any serious efforts whatsoever since to abolish the electoral college. Not that the electoral college was intended to subvert democracy, unlike Tone's anti-democratic 'constitutional reforms.'

Play the FPTP game right, and maybe one day you too in UKIP can give your defeated MP's a cushy retirement in the Lords. And you too can stack the body with as many peers as necessary to quash any possibility of dissent. But first of course, you need find victory in an electoral system that is specifically designed to shut out third-party opposition and maintain established power at all costs. Sucks, don't it ?

Just Madness Everywhere

2015, and we still seemingly have racially motivated attacks on historically black churches in the Southern United States. Wonder what the cooling-off-period is between a shooting and the inevitable right-wing response that it all could have been prevented if only everyone were armed.  Elementary Schools, Universities...why not Churches ?  Arm the congregation and clergy alike.

Elsewhere in the news, Hong Kong still seemingly hasn't come to terms with the consequences of returning to mainland-rule and the fact that the PRC never had any intention whatsoever of allowing actual democracy to prevail under its rule, even in its special administrative regions,...NATO is continuing its lunatic tit-for-tat escalation with Russia by acting out war-games off the coast of Kaliningrad,...and bankers Goldman Sachs are attempting to show how humane they are and how great their concern for their staffinterns desperate for any foothold on the jobs-ladder to pay off student-debt, by insisting that they only work a maximum seventeen-hour workday.

And then there's this:

The increasingly tense relationship between the United States and Russia might be about to face a new challenge: a Russian investigation into American moon landings.

In an op-ed published by Russian newspaper Izvestia, Vladimir Markin, a spokesman for the government's official Investigative Committee, argued that such an investigation could reveal new insights into the historical space journeys.

According to a translation by the Moscow Times, Markin would support an inquiry into the disappearance of original footage from the first moon landing in 1969 and the whereabouts of lunar rock, which was brought back to Earth during several missions.

“We are not contending that they did not fly [to the moon], and simply made a film about it. But all of these scientific — or perhaps cultural — artifacts are part of the legacy of humanity, and their disappearance without a trace is our common loss. An investigation will reveal what happened,” Markin wrote, according to the Moscow Times translation.

Er, what, why ?.

So, why is Investigative Committee member Markin speculating about conspiracy theories surrounding US moon landings that happened decades ago? In his op-ed, the Russian official also emphasized that “US authorities had crossed a line by launching a large-scale corruption probe targeting nine Fifa officials,” according to the Moscow Times.

We're descending to this level of pettiness in our new cold war already ?

Well, why ever not ?  The US hadn't even started its war in Iraq (you know the one I mean, don't quibble) before it was going after its own erstwhile allies with that 'freedom fries' & 'old Europe' nonsense.  This is how we do geopolitics in the twenty-first century apparently.  The grownups left the game long ago.

That US Presidential Candidate Tracker Thing

No, I haven't been updating it.  I hesitated as new candidates entered the race, as to whether I should add Carly Fiorina & Bernie Sanders despite both not having a cat in hell's chance of winning their respective nominations, and since then the field has just continued to balloon ridiculously.  To have a usable web-graphic, I think something like an image of a cartoony train-carriage, looping around the page would be necessary, and I'm not sure I'm up to it.  At this point, the whole thing is a farce, as is the continuing use of the word 'democracy' to describe the elections.

I mean, yes, many countries have mock-candidates.  John Oliver did a bit on the joke-candidacies as a result of mandatory voting in Brasil, and the Monster Raving Loony Party is a bona fide staple of British elections, but...these people are going to make millions and millions of dollars out of pretending to run for president.  While in the background, the country's multi-billionaires decide amongst themselves the actual winner...

I mean, shit, I can just about identify 2/3 of these assholes, but I'm guessing the average American would struggle to get above low single digits.

That fascist in the far-lower right-hand corner is maybe worth paying attention, as is, solely due to his name, his opposite in the far-upper left-hand corner.  And third from right in the top row, well, that motherfucker's a terrifying prospect given his record and the American public's gullibility.  As for Mister second from the far-left top corner, well...

Dramas involving bridges or not...are you really going to elect...this guy ?*

Let's just chug a quart or two of bleach in honour of Auntie Hill becoming the US' next semi-benevolent dictator...


* Although honestly, Chris Christie is far and away actually one of the better candidates from the GOP.

TPP & TTIP

And there came one of the seven angels which had the seven vials, and talked with me, saying unto me, Come hither; I will shew unto thee the judgment of the great whore that sitteth upon many waters:

With whom the kings of the earth have committed fornication, and the inhabitants of the earth have been made drunk with the wine of her fornication.

Revelation 17:1-2

TPP & TTIP (the Trans-Pacific Partnership & the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) don't seem to get much coverage in the media, despite their likely impact on so many countries, likely because a) the deals are complicated, and b) the deals are being worked in secret behind closed doors.  These are just 'trade deals' remember, not exactly a nuclear deal with Iran; Totally innocent stuff, and the reason the US, UK, and other governments don't want you to know about what's being discussed, is simply that it's so boring.  They'll tell you all about it eventually, such as...four years after the deals are already done and dusted.

In the meantime, you're just gonna have to trust them that the deals are in your best interest and will result in more jobs, more prosperity, and rising wages, just like...say NAFTA...or say...the MFN deal Clinton pushed with China.  Those worked out really well, didn't they ?  And the PRC is going to turn into a flourishing democracy with respect for the human rights and civil liberties of all its citizens any day now, right Bill ?

Basically, like all 'free trade' deals, the idea is to maximise corporate profits at the expense of labour costs (i.e. your paycheck), civil liberties, national sovereignty, safety, and the environment; to drag every nation slowly down to the lowest-common denominator.  To drag the EU standards down to those of the US, down to those of South America, down to those of east Asia, down ultimately one would imagine to those of Somalia.  And if any national government gets in the way of corporate profits by passing pesky laws to, say protect the safety & wellbeing of its citizens, well fuck 'em. !  They can just be sued, in trans-national arbitration tribunals, run by said corporations, and outside of national law.  Bye-bye national sovereignty.  And you think the EU is the threat, Ukippers ?


Here's a nice summary of the deals for the uninitiated (yes with Russell Brand, sorry):

Sounds good, huh ?

Remember this bit from Last Week Tonight ?  (Might want to skip to 8'05).  Think Philip Morris is the only corporation that does this stuff ?  Think making this shit even easier is a good idea ?

What to do, other than try to find some non-corporatist non-fascist non-cocksucker politicians to vote for ?  Well the first video has some suggestions towards the end.  I don't hold out much hope myself, but you never know.

For the American Sparkle-pony crowd, here's a bonus video, with not-going-to-be-the-Democratic-nominee-for-president-any-time-soon Elizabeth Warren on TPP and the ISDS tribunals back in February.

And if you really want lots more details on TPP, check out Gaius Publius' writings on the subject.  Don't know if Gaius has a dedicated page, but Hullabaloo & Americablog are probably good starting points.