I was vaguely hopeful up until the general election even that Trump, who prides himself on his unpredictability, might surprise us, that the incompetence & recklessness shown during the campaign might turn out to have been an act, but at this point, listening to commentators on the BBC mere days before inauguration still holding out promise that he can change, and insisting that we should give him a chance, give him the benefit of the doubt, I have do ask What are they smoking ? Will the chattering classes still six months from now, eighteen months from now still be denying the obvious ? That the man is exactly who he has shown himself to be, the last two years of the campaign...The last seven decades of his life ? FFS !
Anyways...Putin...Russia...I've written here before on what I think about/how I feel about events in South Ossetia, in Ukraine & Crimea. How I feel that Russia's geopolitical strategy is, certainly from their point of view, primarily defensive, and an attempt through fostering frozen conflicts, to establish buffer-zones between themselves, and what they see as Western encroachment/encirclement. And it's a smart strategy. Russia, despite what the USSR may or may not have been, and despite attempts at modernisation, is likely not as powerful militarily as they would have us believe, and even before falls in the price of oil & natural gas*, hardly an economic powerhouse.
What does it cost Russia to maintain frozen conflicts around Georgia & Ukraine ? How many military assets does Russia need to sustain a minimal presence in South Ossetia or Abkhazia ? How much does it cost to fund a simmering uprising in the East of Ukraine, to send over the occasional advisers or armaments ? The cost of fortifying and rebuilding the infrastructure of Crimea I would imagine are substantial, but of the territories in question, this is the only one of true militarily strategic value to the Russians, so I'd be surprised if they didn't spend there, whether they have the money or not. It's an investment in the future.
And so long as the unrest simmers in Eastern Ukraine, so long as Ukraine declines to relinquish its claim to Crimea, Ukraine is stuck/frozen. No EU membership for Ukraine, no invitation to join the NATO umbrella. Same for Georgia so long as it maintains its claims to Abkhazia & South Ossetia. (Perhaps another non-European nation will be the first instead to take the EU out of the actual European subcontinent...if the European experiment even survives the next few years...) Cheap & effective.
Know what wouldn't be cheap ? Rolling tanks into fucking Poland. Or even Kiev. This is the fear, right ? Not that Russia might have slightly more influence in its own backyard, might maintain a buffer holding back western expansion, not even that Russia might have some influence in Europe, but that...the Russkies are coming any moment now to kill us all !
What would it cost the Russians to invade, conquer, and then occupy European countries...or any other hostile territories** ? To destroy entire armies, to maintain infrastructure, to suppress likely ongoing violent resistance ? And, in the event of attacking NATO nations (there's the rub in a bit...), risking outright nuclear war ? For what ? 'Cos evil Vladimir Putin ('Vlad the Impaler' as Russophobic idiot Randi Rhodes has taken to calling him) wants to rebuild the Soviet Empire ?!! I have no doubt that Putin does want to restore what he sees as Russian pride, as Russian honour, as respect for Russia. As no doubt, do most ordinary Russians. But where is the evidence for imperial ambitions ?
I could be wrong, of course, but when has Putin acted irrationally, when has he shown himself to be anything other than the cool calculating pragmatist, acting in what he rationally sees as the best interest of the Russian people ? Empires are expensive. (And even the most successful, even the mightiest eventually collapse under their own weight.) If Putin truly is the psychopath some would make him out to be, maybe he doesn't care, but there's no evidence of this. Russia, economically, is still largely in a state of contraction. Putin can puff his flabby chest out all he want, but Russia is no Rome, no industrial Britain. Russia, large as it is, doesn't have the resource-constraints of an island Britain or a Japan to drive it on to overseas conquests. And it doesn't have the ideological motivation of a Nazi Germany or its own predecessor the USSR for empire-building, nor even the putative motivation of US empire in 'spreading democracy.' Why, unless Putin is a complete maniac, would Russia be so stupid as to roll out the tanks into Europe ?
I meant it, that I don't fear Vladimir Putin. I don't like the bastard, I don't think he's 'a good person', I despise his treatment of the LGBT community, his record on civil liberties, his targeting of political enemies, and I don't trust him as such, but I do on the basis of his past action see him as a rational actor. As he moves the various (likely to him, disposable) pieces around on the chessboard, Putin is a ruthless player, but not so far as I can tell, ever a reckless one.
Now, for the caveat: Donald Fucking Trump.
I don't know to what degree the Russians may have worked with his campaign, or whether they might have some hold over him via bribery or blackmail.*** The fact that they not so much wanted him as President per se, but far more obviously Did Not Want Fucking Russophobic Warmonger Hillary, I don't blame them for, and the idea that of all the factors in the election, from Hillary's own inappropriateness as a candidate to the GOP suppression of the vote, we would focus on supposed Russian hacking as responsible for Hillary's loss, I find laughable. And ooh, CIA goons, shock horror, RT is involved in producing state-propaganda, that tends to favour Russian interests over the West ?...No Shit ! But...if only via Paul Manafort, there do seem to be ties between the Donald and the Kremlin; there is reason for suspicion.And, I have to say this...Trump potentially changes everything. Trump is the wildest of wild cards, and could destabilise the global order seven ways from Sunday with any given tweet, never mind access to nukes. And Trump is on the record, questioning the relevance or necessity of NATO. Personally, I'm not sure myself whether NATO should have continued post Cold War****, but all my past calculations regarding the actions of Russia & other possible hostile powers have been posited at least in part on an assumption that the shared military & nuclear deterrent of NATO would hold. Disbanding or neutering the NATO deterrent at this point in time would seems to me incredibly reckless (more so or less so than massing NATO forces on Russia's border as idiot Obama & the EU currently doing debatable), let alone in concert w/encouraging nuclear proliferation in the Far East & Middle East, but...idiot Americans decided to elect maniac Trump, and such ill-thought-out policies does he bring.
I still don't particularly fear Putin, but then again, I don't live in Eastern Europe... I couldn't blame them back in the (well, still technically in for a few more days) relatively safe era of Obama for being wary of Putin & the Kremlin at least. Back when I assumed the NATO alliance would endure well into the foreseeable future. If that alliance goes away, or is significantly weakened...if the immediate threat of Mutually Assured Destruction is removed ?...
Well, I still don't think it likely that even then Putin would be stupid enough to invade & occupy the Baltic states, never mind Poland...Germany... Empire, as I said, is Expensive. But...some more localised disturbance, on the pretext say of protecting Russian citizens, Russian speakers, some version of the strategy of frozen conflicts ? Some interference in the political process, an attempt to install political figures friendly to Russian interests...? If I lived in the Baltics right now, in the soon-to-be Trump era, yeah, I'd be at least a little worried. Live nowhere near, and I'm fucking terrified, but again, in my case,...of Donald, not Vlad.
The point of all of this ? Nothing more than to set out where I stand on these issues currently, how I see events possibly playing out. And, even in the era of the Cheeto King Trump, advising caution, that we treat Putin and the Russians generally as respected adversaries, and as proven rational actors, rather than as cartoon-supervillains. Putin's hold on power won't last; Nor will Trump's. One way or another, the earth will dawn on a day neither of said authoritarian arseholes hold sway over their respected peoples. I'd rather the reason therefor were not the nuclear annihilation of all human civilisation.
* And if you believe that there wasn't a coordinated effort between the US & Saudi in this regard...
** Hint, hint...South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea...not only not hostile territory to Russia, but friendly.
*** If the CIA et al do have any further potentially damaging info. or rumours on Trump, I would suggest they release it post haste, to pre-empt any blackmail, and to let Trump deal with the embarrassment whilst he still lacks actual nukes at his disposal.
**** It could have been maintained as more of a Northern alliance, if we had pursued closer friendlier relations & possible alliance w/a certain large country of similar cultural origins, but neither here nor there now...
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