Maybe the GOP is Right about Obama's Foreign Policy

This is pathetic.

Obama team, military at odds over South China Sea

Some U.S. naval commanders are at odds with the Obama administration over whether to sail Navy ships right into a disputed area in the South China Sea — a debate that pits some military leaders who want to exercise their freedom of navigation against administration officials and diplomats trying to manage a delicate phase in U.S.-China relations.

The Pentagon has repeatedly maintained it reserves the right to sail or fly by a series of artificial islands that China is outfitting with military equipment. The Navy won’t say what it has or hasn’t done, but military officials and congressional hawks want the U.S. to make a major demonstration by sending warships within 12 miles of the artificial islands and make clear to China that the U.S. rejects its territorial claims.

By not doing so, they charge, Washington is tacitly accepting China’s destabilizing moves, which are seen by U.S. allies in the region such as Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam as highly threatening.

“We continue to restrict our Navy from operating within a 12 nautical mile zone of China’s reclaimed islands, a dangerous mistake that grants de facto recognition of China’s man-made sovereignty claims,” Sen. John McCain, the Republican chairman of the Armed Services Committee, told POLITICO.

I hate to agree with John McCain, but he's right here.

Sources in the military and within the administration acknowledge the difference of opinion privately, but would not go on the record to discuss the differences between Navy leaders and the administration.

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The dispute is more than just a naval territorial dispute — there are global economic implications if China claims ownership of this part of the sea, which sees trillions in goods shipped between Asia and the rest of the globe.

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China claims it has exclusive control over waters hundreds of miles off its coast, and U.S. officials say Beijing believes the man-made islands strengthen its claim to the disputed Spratly Islands chain, which China and several Southeast Asian countries claim as their own.

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The artificial islands have added to a broader disagreement between Washington and Beijing over freedom of navigation. The United States and most other countries, citing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, maintain that a coastal nation has the right to regulate economic activities such as fishing and oil exploration within a 200-mile economic exclusionary zone and that it cannot regulate foreign military forces except within 12 nautical miles off its shores. China, however, has insisted it can regulate economic and military activities out 200 nautical miles.

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More than $5 trillion worth of international trade, from Middle East oil bound for Asian markets to children’s toys bound for Wal-Mart stores in the U.S., pass through the South China Sea each year. If China can restrict the passage of ships through what today are considered international waters, that could cause shockwaves for the world economy, U.S. officials warn.

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The National Security Council also declined to discuss the dispute or outline the White House’s view, referring questions to the Pentagon.

But the Obama administration is increasingly seen as eager to avoid a confrontation by actually doing so — at least publicly — and Republicans are trying to pressure President Obama ahead of the Chinese leader’s visit to more aggressively assert himself in the face of China’s controversial behavior.

Just think back at the reaction of the US, when Russia annexed its own historical territory in Crimea, with the agreement of most of the Crimean population.  The PRC is, with its ridiculous EEZ-claims*, and creation of military outposts out of open ocean, effectively claiming exclusive ownership of and control over an entire sea !  At the expense of the actual territorial waters of the countries in the area, and at the expense of the entire international community's rights of navigation.  And the US response ?**  'Pretty please, don't do that, huh ?  What if we ask you really, really nicely ?'  Which is pretty much what I'd expect from a government that puts short-term corporate profits ahead of all other interests.

The US can't be counted on to stand by the Philippines or Viet Nam, here, can't be counted on by its Asian allies generally, if it allows this to stand without even attempting to assert its own legal right of navigation.  Sailing in international waters is an act of provocation towards a country a thousand kilometres away ?  Is that really a precedent you want to set ?  No-one's asking you to go to war with China.  Just assert your damn legal rights, and let the PRC take the first shot, if that's really where they want to go with this.  Shit !

Oh, but they left the best piece for last in that article:

But at the same time U.S. military leaders are advocating for something else — for the U.S. Senate to ratify the UN Law of the Sea treaty that it repeatedly cites as as the international framework for navigation of the high seas.

“We undermine our leverage by not signing up to the same rule book by which we are asking other countries to accept,” Gen. Joe Dunford, the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate earlier this month.

That's right, as with so many other international agreements, the US signs up for something, then won't fucking ratify it, 'cos historically, the US has kinda not given a shit, figuring it will just do what it wants, regardless of the international community.  Which becomes somewhat problematic, when it comes up across another country with the same arrogant attitude, and the muscle to stand up to the US.

In the case of the UNCLOS, the US finds itself in a club that also includes the likes of North Korea & Iran.  But not the PRC, which ratified the agreement...but then just ignores it anyway.


* And absurd territorial claims based upon a bullshit made-up map from nineteen-forty-fuckin'-seven.

** Never mind the EU's silence on the matter.

The Country We Pretend Doesn't Exist

Seems like every other day or so, there is another encouraging story of countries in the vicinity of what we still insist on calling the South China Sea (we really need a rebranding of that body of water, that should never have been given such a misleading name in the first place) asserting their rights against the attempted landgrabs and colonisation of the PRC.

I'd noticed the earlier stories, such as the Japanese patrols, and the reopening of Subic Bay, but honestly, couldn't think of anything specific to say on the matters.  This, on the other hand, struck me about the story regarding Taiwan:

Taiwan, which lacks the diplomatic ties to negotiate with the other five governments with claims in the South China Sea, has installed $1.29 million worth of solar panels on Taiping Island since 2011 to light a cluster of buildings and provide power for construction of a 200-meter (yard) pier due for completion by year's end, the head of the island's coast guard said Friday.

Taiwan has been an independent country for almost seventy years.  Not a country we choose to pretend to be independent, like 'Palestine', but an actual fully-functioning autonomous entity.  The US (which likes to pretend that international borders haven't changed since the second world war), and most countries in the EU, granted quick recognition to Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008.  And yet, the vast majority of the countries on the planet, maintain the fiction that Taiwan, seven decades of actual independence regardless, is still* a province of the People's Republic of China.

Some of these countries used to recognise Taiwan, as the ROC (Republic of China), but later switched their recognition to the PRC.  I've never understood this 'choice' -- How was recognition of the obvious independence of mainland China from Taiwan ever dependent on rejecting the obvious independence of Taiwan from mainland China ?  Were we not capable of recognising both East and West Germany ?  Are we not capable of distinguishing between North and South Korea ?

Of course, I'm being a bit disingenuous here, as if I didn't know full well the political intent of forcing countries that wanted closer economic ties with the PRC to reject Taiwan.  As if I didn't understand their economic motivations in betraying a country that may have been, and may yet prove to be a valuable ally.

It still stinks.  We in the West scarcely dare say boo to the PRC, even when they steal from us, spy on us, threaten us and our allies militarily, engage in cyber-terrorism even.  Because we're so desperate for access to their markets and their cheap labour.  Meanwhile, we turned our back on a peaceful ally in Taiwan and officially embraced the insane One-China dogma of those on the mainland who would willingly destroy the Taiwanese utterly rather than allow them their rightful independence.

And now here we are, with the PRC threatening the sovereign waters of Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, et al.  And the country similarly and more historically thus threatened, Taiwan, 'lacks the diplomatic ties to negotiate with' them, because they, like so many other cowardly governments worldwide, stabbed Taiwan in the back, so greedy were they for relations with the PRC at any cost.

Here's the countries, according to Wikipedia, that have recognised, mostly in the last few years, 'The State of Palestine':

Image: Wikipedia, User Night w  CC SA 3.0

OTOH, the tiny few remaining countries in green below have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, whilst those cowards in blue maintain some sort of unofficial relations.

Image: Wikipedia, User Alinor  CC SA 3.0

As I said above, it is encouraging to see countries in the 'South China Sea' pushing back against the PRC's aggression just off their shores.  But if they wanted to truly send a signal to the PRC of their displeasure, then decades-long belated recognition of their neighbour and potential ally in Taiwan would be a hell of a place to start.


* Almost got myself there

** Oh, and in case it is brought up at some point, no, the situation with the South China Sea is not the same as that with Russia and Eastern Ukraine, the latter conflict being largely if not primarily created by Western hostility against and encirclement of Russia, which hardly relates to the circumstances of the Chinese Civil War in the 'forties.  And the differing attitudes towards the PRC & Russia, both being motivated overwhelming by corporate greed, with geopolitical principles bent at will to whichever attitude might bring about the greatest possible profit in the short to medium term, even if in the long term, those attitudes might lead to global thermonuclear war.  Much as the likes of idiots such as John McCain (or, for that matter, even Vladimir Putin himself) might like to fantasise about a 'new Soviet Empire', Russia is in fact a much lessened nation, than its Soviet predecessor, responding more in the manner of a cornered animal, but no less dangerous for that.  If you want to find yourself a new imperial project (other than the perpetual one of the United States of course), Southeast Asia is where you will find it.

*** Assuming in all of this that the Taiwanese would not be so insane as to assert the same made-up 'nine-dash' claims for their own nation, which would be equally absurd as the same claims of the PRC.

An Alliance against an 'Unstated Adversary' ?

In Asia, China’s increasingly assertive acts prompt unity among opponents

BEIJING China is showing itself to be a unifying force in Asia – uniting various countries against Beijing’s increasingly assertive actions in the South China Sea.

On Monday, Malaysian officials announced they would register a complaint against a Chinese coast guard ship that ventured into their country’s territorial waters north of Borneo.

On Tuesday, Japan and the Philippines announced plans for a joint search-and-rescue exercise involving military aircraft later this month. The announcement followed a trip by Philippines President Benigno Aquino III to Tokyo last weekend, which could pave the way for Japanese aircraft and ships to refuel at Philippines military bases.

Last week, Reuters reported that Vietnam – amid tense relations with China – was talking to U.S. and European military contractors about possibly purchasing fighter jets, maritime patrol planes and unarmed drones.

Over the last several months, China’s expansion of artificial islands in the South China Sea has widely been seen as a blow to U.S. foreign policy, which seems unable to keep Beijing in check. Yet increasingly, China’s actions are prompting its neighbors to explore new security arrangements with each other, which Chinese leaders have long sought to avoid.

“For China, it could end up being a Pyrrhic victory in the long run,” Denny Roy, a security analyst at the East-West Center in Hawaii, said in a telephone interview Tuesday. Beijing’s hopes of extracting concessions from other Asian countries could be thrown into doubt “if the result is improved security cooperation, with China as the unstated adversary,” he said.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article23583919.html#storylink=cpy

Colour me sceptical, but it'll be interesting to see how this pans out.  The US has a stake in this fight, as does the rest of the international community, if for no other reason than maintaining freedom of navigation in international waters, but if China's neighbours won't stand up against the PRC building military outposts out of open ocean off their shores, then hegemony of the PRC throughout the region seems inevitable.

In Which the PRC is Totally Not Militarising the West Philippine Sea

Chinese Weapons Spotted on Disputed Island, U.S. Says

By MATTHEW ROSENBERG MAY 29, 2015

SINGAPORE — The United States has spotted a pair of mobile artillery vehicles on an artificial island that China is building in the South China Sea, a resource-rich stretch of ocean crossed by vital shipping lanes, American officials said.

China’s construction program on previously uninhabited atolls and reefs in the Spratly Islands has already raised alarm and drawn protests from other countries in the region, whose claims to parts of the South China Sea overlap China’s.

Unpossible.  The PRC's activities are purely peaceful after all, and for the benefit of their neighbours.

Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter called this week for China to halt the construction, saying that international law did not recognize Chinese claims of sovereignty over the new territories and that American warships and military aircraft would continue to operate in the area.

A violation of international law !  And we know how seriously the Americans take that !  Why any minute now, they'll be announcing sanctions, and...and...  Well no, of course not.

Psst, Vietnam...Philippines...Malaysia...Take a look at Ukraine.  That's what you get when the country on the other side is one upon whom the US is not massively economically dependent (as a result of insane past policy-decisions).  Think the US will be there when it counts ?  Might be time to make other plans...

Shocking Military Provocation in the West Philippine Sea

TENSIONS are set to escalate in the South China Sea as China seeks assurances the United States will not send warships to test its determination to lay claim to a string of remote, strategic islands.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said last night that the US needs to clarify its stance on proposed new patrols around the islands being used to establish a claim on key strategic oil and fish stocks.

China urged “the relevant country” to “refrain from taking risky and provocative actions to maintain the regional peace and stability”, Hua told reporters.

Huh, wonder why the PRC is so concerned about US military patrols in international waters if its own presence there is so peaceful and neighbourly, and not at all militaristic ?  And since when did they even admit using the artificial islands to promote (utterly bogus) claims on oil and fish ?

BEIJING, May 13 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Wednesday voiced "serious concern" toward a U.S. official's remarks on the Pentagon's plan to send military aircraft and ships to the South China Sea.

Spokesperson Hua Chunying said at a routine press briefing that the U.S. side should clarify relevant remarks.

According to a Reuters report, a U.S. official said on Tuesday the Pentagon is considering sending U.S. military aircraft and ships to "assert freedom of navigation" around Chinese-made artificial islands in the South China Sea.

China has always advocated freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, Hua said. "But freedom of navigation does not give one country's military aircraft and ships free access to another country's territorial waters and airspace."

Yep, he actually said that.

Sure, we could consider those your territorial waters, if we completely ignored the claims of the other countries that happen to be much much closer to the waters in question.

But hey, 固有之疆域, right ?  Wonder what the world might look like if every country declared that any territory they had held at any point in history should be theirs until the end of time ?  Like, gee I don't know, how about...Japan, say ?

The PRC would be totally cool with that, right ?

The Artificial Islands of Love

What is it about totalitarian dictatorships that produces such hilarious rhetoric ?

South China Sea islands plan unveiled

Updated: 2015-04-10 03:20

By LI XIAOKUN(China Daily)

United States accused of ignoring building work by other nations on China's islands

China on Thursday unveiled details of its plan for building and maintenance projects on some of its islands in the South China Sea, saying it aims mainly to provide a civilian service that will benefit other countries.

The details were announced by the Foreign Ministry, which also accused Washington of adopting double standards on the issue by ignoring building work by other countries on islands owned by China.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a regular news briefing, "We are setting up shelters, aids for navigation, search and rescue as well as marine meteorological forecasting services, fishery services and other administrative services.

"These will provide necessary services to China, neighboring countries and individual vessels sailing in the South China Sea."

But of course, you're building artificial islands out of open sea far far far from your own coastline, because of the benefit you can provide to the other (much) nearer countries in the vicinity.  It all makes sense now.  What were we worrying about ?  Here we were thinking it was a land-grab based upon your usual maximalist territorial claims to any inch of land or water on which a Chinese citizen ever walked...er swam ?...sailed ?...But all along, it turns out the whole thing was a gift to your neighbours.  That totally makes sense.  You can stop worrying now Vietnam.  No problem at all Philippines.  And Taiwan, well when the PRC invades you and forces you under their rule, then all of this will be yours too !  Assuming they don't drop a neutron-bomb on you first.  Maybe you should just surrender now...

Nothing to worry about...at all...